More Mixed Signals from the Markets
February 26th, 2008
Some good news for the housing market emerged yesterday, as the British Bankers’ Association (BBA) reported ‘exceptionally strong’ demand for funds to remortgage property. That would suggest that the credit crunch may not be affecting those refixing their mortgages quite yet, contrary to some of the more gloomy predictions about their plight.
The BBA said the number of remortgage approvals rose to 79,016, up 17 per cent on December and up 39 per cent year-on-year as a raft of borrowers came off two- and three-year fixed rate deals, albeit usually with a ‘payment shock’ as they moved on to the higher rates now generally charged.
The number of mortgages approved, that is entirely new finance flowing into the property market, was also up on December, although that was by a very low figure. Some 44,288 new mortgages were approved by the major banks in January, higher than expected by analysts. A total of £18bn was advanced to consumers during the month, up from £15.5bn in December, although the figure was down 4.7 per cent on a year earlier.
Nonetheless, the new mortgage approval figures remain among the lowest on record, and down 31.3 per cent on January 2007. There was little in the data to shift the expectation of a stagnant real-estate market in 2008, and the suspicion that first-time buyers are finding it difficult to obtain a mortgage.
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, said, ‘while first-time buyers may be struggling to find finance to get a foot on the residential ladder, there are increasing opportunities to refinance for those who already own property. This reflects the greater willingness on the part of lenders to pass on base rate cuts to this group of borrowers. It does, however, throw into sharp relief the claim that a weaker housing market will necessarily be good news for first-time buyers.’
There is also evidence of the credit crunch hitting the credit card and unsecured personal loan market. New spending on credit cards fell to £7.3bn last month from £7.4bn in December, and new loans dropped £100m to £2.6bn in January, down 6.5 per cent on a year earlier.
David Dooks, statistics director at the BBA, said, ‘despite strong volumes of retail sales, card transaction volumes were little changed and spending was more than offset by repayments. Overall consumer credit remained subdued.’
As well as banks being less willing to lend, households are less keen to borrow, Mr Dooks explained. ‘The focus on the household budget is stronger, with higher petrol prices and utility bills meaning that people have to be more careful with their expenditure.’
News from the City has been quite gloomy of late, but there are reasons to be cheerful, especially if you are a shareholder of Lloyds TSB Group. The biggest U.K. provider of personal loans has announced second-half profits increased 10 percent, helped by mortgage lending, asset sales and cost controls.






